Laith Abu-Raddad, Ph.D.

Dr. Laith Abu-Raddad will participate in the mathematical modeling research agenda of the Statistical and Data Management Center for the Microbicide Trials Network. Dr. Abu-Raddad is developing a complementary set of mathematical models that will be tailored to address the design of community randomized trials and post-marketing studies. This research will be based on two modeling approaches: (1) deterministic compartmental models based on differential equations that will incorporate some level of behavioral and biological heterogeneities, and (2) more complex distributional stochastic individual based models. The latter will be adapted to embed study design specifications, and linked to a module to perform statistical analysis of simulated trial results to derive optimal methods to estimate efficacy and other parameters. Each type of model will incorporate details of the natural history of HIV and STI infections in the absence of a microbicide, the biological properties of the hypothetical microbicide, characteristics related to product use (adherence, acceptability, condom use, etc.), and the demographic and behavioral characteristics of the population, with specific levels of complexity and heterogeneity.